The end of RSA and ECC is already on the calendar
NIST published the first post-quantum standards in August 2024. Its draft transition guidance deprecates today's quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithms after 2030, and the EU roadmap asks for high-risk systems to move by the end of 2030.
QuantumLock helps with the parts of the migration that can start now: knowing where vulnerable cryptography lives, and signing what must stay trustworthy for years.
- Standards published
- FIPS 203, 204 and 205 · Aug 2024
- Deprecation proposed
- After 2030 · NIST IR 8547 draft
- EU high-risk systems
- By the end of 2030
Why now
Two risks that start before a quantum computer exists
A quantum computer able to break RSA and ECC has not been demonstrated. The risk to your organisation starts earlier, because data and signatures outlive the systems that produce them.
Harvest now, decrypt later
Encrypted traffic recorded today can be decrypted once the keys can be broken. Data that must stay confidential for ten years is exposed now.
Trust now, forge later
Firmware, releases, contracts and licences are verified for years. Once a signature scheme falls, forged signatures look as valid as real ones.
Inventory comes first
Every roadmap starts with the same step: find where quantum-vulnerable cryptography is used, then decide what moves first.
The timeline
The dates regulators have set
The milestones that shape migration plans in Europe and for organisations that sell to US agencies. Draft documents are marked as drafts.
Aug 2024
NIST publishes the first post-quantum standards
FIPS 203 (ML-KEM) for key establishment, FIPS 204 (ML-DSA) and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA) for digital signatures.
Source · NIST FIPS 203, 204, 205
Nov 2024
NIST proposes end dates for RSA and ECC
The initial public draft of NIST IR 8547 deprecates quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithms at 112-bit security after 2030 and disallows them after 2035.
Source · NIST IR 8547, initial public draft
Jan 2025
DORA applies to EU financial entities
The ICT risk standards under DORA require financial entities to keep their cryptographic controls up to date with developments in cryptanalysis.
Source · Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1774, Art. 6
Jun 2025
The EU sets a coordinated roadmap
The NIS Cooperation Group publishes a coordinated implementation roadmap for the transition to post-quantum cryptography across Member States.
Source · EU Coordinated Implementation Roadmap
End of 2026
First steps under way
Member States are expected to have started the transition, including national plans and the first inventories of cryptographic assets.
Source · EU Coordinated Implementation Roadmap
2030
High-risk systems and signing move
The EU roadmap targets high-risk use cases by the end of 2030. NSA CNSA 2.0 expects software and firmware signing for US national security systems to use quantum-resistant algorithms exclusively by 2030.
Source · EU roadmap; NSA CNSA 2.0
2035
Quantum-vulnerable algorithms disallowed
The NIST draft disallows quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithms, and the EU roadmap aims to migrate as many systems as feasible.
Source · NIST IR 8547 draft; EU roadmap
What QuantumLock does
The parts of the migration you can start this quarter
Cryptographic inventory
Import a CycloneDX 1.6 CBOM and evaluate it against a versioned policy pack. QuantumLock does not scan your systems; it evaluates the inventory your tools produce.
Cryptographic inventoryPost-quantum signing
Sign artifacts with ML-DSA (FIPS 204). The implementation comes from liboqs and is not CAVP-validated.
Quantum-safe signaturesHybrid signing
A classical signature and an ML-DSA signature over the same digest. QuantumLock accepts the pair only when both verify.
Hybrid licence validation
Software licences that validate under classical and post-quantum rules, so licensing can move with the rest of the estate.
Evidence verification
Check that a QCOS evidence record is unchanged against its SHA-256 Merkle root, using the RFC 9162 tree format.
Verifiable computationAI agent access
A QuantumLock MCP server is in development. Today, agents can reach QuantumLock through the REST API and Python SDK.
How the migration runs
Four steps, in the order regulators expect
- 01
Inventory
Export a CBOM from the discovery tools you already run and import it into QuantumLock.
- 02
Evaluate
Run it against the softquantus-pqc-baseline policy pack. Each finding has a severity, and the result is a pass, review or fail decision with a reproducible id.
- 03
Sign hybrid
Keep the classical signature your verifiers know and add an ML-DSA signature beside it.
- 04
Move to post-quantum only
When your verifiers and your policy allow it, sign with ML-DSA alone.
Questions
Post-quantum cryptography, answered plainly
What is post-quantum cryptography?
Public-key algorithms designed to resist attacks from quantum computers as well as classical ones. NIST standardised the first set in August 2024: ML-KEM for key establishment and ML-DSA and SLH-DSA for digital signatures.
When do RSA and ECC have to be replaced?
It depends on your regulator. The NIST draft IR 8547 deprecates them after 2030 and disallows them after 2035. The EU roadmap targets high-risk use cases by the end of 2030. Signatures that must be verified for many years are usually moved first.
What does hybrid mean?
Two signatures over the same data, one classical and one post-quantum, both required to verify. A forger would have to break both schemes, so the pair holds as long as either scheme holds.
Does QuantumLock encrypt traffic or replace TLS?
No. QuantumLock signs, validates licences and evaluates cryptographic inventories. Key establishment, such as ML-KEM in your TLS stack, is outside its scope.
Is the ML-DSA implementation validated?
QuantumLock uses ML-DSA from liboqs. It implements the FIPS 204 algorithm but is not CAVP-validated. If your policy requires a validated module, tell us before procurement.
Can AI agents use QuantumLock?
A QuantumLock MCP server is in development. Until it ships, agents can call the REST API through the Python SDK. QCOS already has an MCP server, see MCP integration.
Sources and next steps
Primary sources
- NIST FIPS 204: Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Standard
- NIST FIPS 203: Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism
- NIST IR 8547 (initial public draft): Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards
- EU Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to PQC
- Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1774
- QuantumLock security model
- QuantumLock pricing
Start with what you have
Send us a CBOM, or the list of what you sign today. We will show you what QuantumLock evaluates and signs, and what it does not.